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Just two days prior to the NYC mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – going beyond the winner citywide, and block by block. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of local celebrity recently for his deep dives into city data and polling.

He published his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win while missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the “commie corridor”, stretching from one neighborhood to another area to a third locale, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, certain media outlets and financial newspapers outrank the mainstream paper” in readership and most voters favored Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Patterns and Unexpected Results

What was your night?

I had to do that because they were adding around 200,000 ballots into the tally frequently! I was actually a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani led the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but there were two big batches of ballots that came in later and his lead dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, it was possible where election day turned out somewhat badly for him, where Cuomo was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the Democratic primary. However Mamdani gained 500,000 supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He assembled the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and individuals squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the primary. Additionally he boosted his base of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse, young, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Muslims. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for Trump last year went for the progressive this year. However it’s not that he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the night was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Both sides. Turnout was much greater than anticipated. I figured we might go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to win.

You forecasted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to surpass half. He’s at 50.4% but remain around 200,000 votes left to report at that time. Thus it’s not certain, but I believe it’s likely, and I hope he does because afterwards no one can say the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Not even Tottenville in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo kept very white areas, affluent zones and devout communities, and plus gained many Republicans on Staten Island who had a high participation. I believe there was a lot of strategic balloting by the Republicans. This happened prior to Trump endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome unless Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your much mentioned left-wing base – did backing for the candidate overwhelming in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners all went for the independent. So there existed some opposition. However overall, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

Prior to the vote we reported on if the candidate was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – like specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were pretty staunchly supportive. Therefore it’s unclear if existed major surprises on this one, but he did hold left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what New York represents in politics? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from the left hail from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I believe that there will be additional examples – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

But I think that each urban center in America can have similar progressive hubs. Cities are the centers of leftwing power in America – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.