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Well. From one perspective, Australia's protracted campaign to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to put on the largest global climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to many people who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the bid to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered close to the Russian leader. Some countries feared a conference obstructed from the leadership if his administration managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for increasing carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the best chance possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.