Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
